Final Tuesday (March 10, 2026) night time, the skies above Erbil — the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan Area — flashed with the streaks of air defence interceptors. Based on Erbil’s governor, no less than 17 drones focused town in a single night time, triggering sirens and sending residents scrambling indoors — a stark reminder that one of many West Asia’s most secure corners is now being drawn right into a widening regional confrontation.
Particles crashed right into a civilian residence close to the USA consulate and landed near a significant public venue. Northern Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish area, which hosts a number of Iranian Kurdish opposition teams, has seen a slew of such assaults for the reason that battle in what officers describe as a quickly escalating marketing campaign within the area.
Within the newest assault, a number of explosions on Monday (March 16, 2026) night time rocked Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, with no less than 4 individuals killed in an air strike on a constructing utilized by an Iran-backed group, and drone strikes concentrating on the USA Embassy. The lethal assault in Baghdad’s Jadriyah district adopted the sound of an explosion from close to the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad’s closely fortified Inexperienced Zone early on Tuesday (March 17, 2026).
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The strikes hitting the area now come from a number of instructions: Iranian missile assaults concentrating on Kurdish opposition teams based mostly in northern Iraq, drone strikes by Iran-aligned militias concentrating on U.S. bases, and retaliatory operations linked to the widening confrontation between Tehran and Washington.
Kurdish lawmakers in Baghdad warn that the federal authorities’s muted response dangers additional destabilising the nation. Civilian areas have additionally been affected: amongst these wounded in current strikes had been a supply driver in Erbil, a nurse in a camp close to Koya, and a baby within the Qalawa neighbourhood of Sulaimaniyah, heightening nervousness amongst residents who had lengthy regarded the Kurdistan Area as a relative refuge from the violence affecting the remainder of Iraq.
Since February 28, when the USA and Israel intensified their assault on Iran, the Kurdistan Area has endured 307 strikes by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated teams, killing eight individuals and injuring 51, in accordance with Neighborhood Peacemaker Crew-Iraqi Kurdistan, which screens actions and violations alongside the Iraq-Iran border.
“Along with the lack of life, the assaults carried out by the IRGC, and its affiliated teams have brought about harm to civilian properties, oil fields, telecommunications infrastructure, accommodations, public areas, and authorities and civil establishments,” stated Kamaran Osman, a member of the CPT Iraqi Kurdistan staff. “Throughout the previous week alone, 21 civilian properties had been hit by fragments of suicide drones and remnants of explosive ordnance.”
Among the many lifeless had been a safety worker at Erbil Worldwide Airport, 4 Kurdish fighters linked to Iranian opposition teams, and a French soldier killed in a drone strike on a joint navy base southwest of Erbil. The confrontation between Iran, the U.S. and Israel are more and more spilling throughout borders and threatening to tug Iraq again right into a battle it has struggled for years to flee.
‘Boots on floor’
Iranian Kurdish opposition teams have suffered casualties within the newest wave of assaults. No less than 5 fighters from completely different Iranian Kurdish organisations have been killed within the current assaults. Iranian Kurdish refugee camps and the navy headquarters of Iranian Kurdish events within the Kurdistan Area had been focused 43 occasions, in accordance with CPT.
Northern Iraq has lengthy served as a sanctuary for Iranian Kurdish dissidents. A number of organisations, together with the Democratic Celebration of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Celebration (PJAK), Komala Celebration of Iranian Kurdistan, Komala Celebration of the Toilers of Kurdistan, PAK and Khabat, keep armed camps, political workplaces and refugee camps within the area.
On February 22, six of those teams introduced the formation of the Alliance of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, an umbrella coalition opposing the Iranian authorities, a uncommon transfer given their longstanding disagreement.
A few of these teams keep armed wings and have traditionally performed operations in opposition to Iranian forces inside Iran’s Kurdish areas. In current weeks, hypothesis surfaced in Washington that such fighters may doubtlessly play a job in a broader stress marketing campaign in opposition to Tehran.
U.S. President Donald Trump, at one level, instructed it will be “fantastic” if Iranian Kurdish forces based mostly in Iraq crossed into Iran to assault the regime, a comment that alarmed Kurdish leaders and risked scary Tehran.
Mr. Trump later appeared to stroll again the suggestion, saying the USA didn’t wish to complicate the battle additional. The Iranian Kurdish teams themselves have denied any coordinated position within the battle to date, at the same time as they continue to be targets of Iranian assaults.
U.S. involvement
The escalation is pulling U.S. forces in Iraq again into confrontation in opposition to their outdated adversary: Iran-backed Shia militias that battled U.S. forces through the years following the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Militias allied with Tehran have launched dozens of drone and rocket assaults on American targets, together with services close to Erbil Worldwide Airport, a base utilized by U.S. forces at Harir, and even the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad.
Based on CPT, through the previous week, consulates, navy bases, and services related to the U.S. authorities within the Kurdistan Area had been focused 39 occasions, bringing the whole variety of such assaults to 97 for the reason that begin of the battle. Condemning the assaults, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani described them as a “terrorist act” carried out by “rogue teams”.
For years, the U.S. sought to wind down its navy involvement within the nation, however the newest assault may change issues on the bottom. Iran holds deep affect within the nation by way of Shia political events and armed factions collectively often called the In style Mobilisation Forces (PMF), whereas the USA nonetheless holds vital leverage by way of safety cooperation, financial ties and remaining troop presence.
The widening battle can be threatening to attract worldwide troops: a drone final week additionally struck a joint Peshmerga-French navy base at Mala Qara, about 60 km southwest of Erbil, killing a French soldier and injuring six others. France, which retains troops within the Kurdistan Area as a part of the worldwide coalition that continues coaching native forces, known as the strike “unacceptable.”
Growing tensions
Tensions between Erbil and Baghdad are additionally rising over oil exports and monetary controls.
Kurdish leaders have known as for pressing dialogue to resolve the rising political and financial dispute after Baghdad proposed exporting as much as 3,00,000 barrels per day by way of the Kurdistan pipeline to Turkiye’s Ceyhan port.
The Kurdistan Regional Authorities (KRG), nevertheless, has accused Iraq of imposing what it describes as a “suffocating embargo” by proscribing Kurdish entry to {dollars} by way of the ASYCUDA customs system, a monetary lever that may have an effect on the KRG’s oil exports and revenues, and failing to stop assaults by Iran-aligned teams. Iraqi political blocs rejected their demand, insisting that oil exports stay a federal authority below Baghdad.
Oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan Area stay largely stalled, with power services repeatedly focused by drone and missile strikes, additional disrupting already fragile power infrastructure. Iraq introduced on Monday that it’s going to start exporting oil immediately from Kirkuk to Turkiye, bypassing the Kurdistan Area.
For Iraq, whose economic system relies upon closely on oil exports, a chronic battle dangers disrupting power exports and deepening the nation’s already fragile political divisions and financial tensions.
Caught within the midst
On Monday (March 16, 2026) night time, a drone struck the Al-Rasheed Lodge, probably the most high-profile accommodations recognized to host dignitaries regularly, in central Baghdad. Eyewitnesses captured flames and thick smoke billowing from the higher flooring of the landmark constructing, in one of many greatest assaults on the Iraqi capital for the reason that battle started. Iraq’s former Deputy Minister Hoshyar Zebari known as it an “all-out battle” by Iraqi militias. “Tonight assaults on Al Rashid Lodge in Baghdad & U.S. Embassy in Inexperienced Zone in Baghdad and Victory base in BIAP plus assaults on Erbil imply an all-out battle by the Iraqi militias to broaden the battle and engulf the nation within the present navy battle,” he wrote on X.
For many years, Iraq has served as a geopolitical crossroads the place regional and worldwide actors compete for affect, a rivalry now enjoying out on its soil as soon as once more.
Tens of 1000’s of fighters belonging to Iranian-aligned militias function throughout the nation, whereas U.S. forces keep a number of navy services — many now concentrated within the Kurdistan Area.
Kurdish authorities have additionally stepped-up criticism of Baghdad’s response. Safeen Dizayee, head of the Kurdistan Regional Authorities’s Division of Overseas Relations, condemned what he described as militia drone strikes concentrating on civilian and diplomatic websites within the area.
“We strongly condemn the militia drone assaults on the Kurdistan Area’s infrastructure and civilian websites, together with the current concentrating on of the UAE Consulate Common in Erbil and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad,” Mr. Dizayee stated in a press release on Sunday, urging the federal authorities and safety forces to disarm the “lawless teams.”
Kurdistan Area Prime Minister Masrour Barzani additionally held a phone dialog with Tom Barrack, the USA Ambassador to Turkiye and Particular Envoy for Syria, throughout which either side condemned the current assaults on the Kurdistan Area and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.
To this point, the battle has seen greater than 7,000 strikes carried out on Iranian targets by the USA and Israel, in accordance with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), whereas Iran has responded by launching over 2,000 drones and 600 missiles. It has additionally begun to disrupt delivery by way of the Strait of Hormuz, a significant chokepoint for world oil commerce.
Anisha Dutta is a journalist based mostly in New York