When the battle in West Asia, which started with the U.S. and Israel’s assault on Iran on February 28, escalated right into a regional battle, analysts mentioned that the battle would final so long as Iran had missiles or till the Gulf nations ran out of interceptors.
A major variety of munitions, particularly missiles and interceptors, have been utilized by all events engaged within the battle.
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Nevertheless, with “emergency” army gross sales, piling financial prices and a strained provide chain, is the U.S. changing into too constrained in its effort to maintain the battle going — each militarily and monetarily?
On February 28, when the assaults started, Mr. Trump mentioned that the U.S. was going to destroy Iran’s missiles and raze their missile business to the bottom.
Nevertheless, Iran has continued its assaults on varied Gulf states and their power infrastructure. Although it has lowered its tempo, it has launched over 1,400 ballistic missiles and three,400 drones between February 28 and March 23 .
Gulf nations, however, have rushed to the U.S. for interceptors. Final week, the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio waived the requirement of a Congress approval to move a $16.46 billion in army gross sales to the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait within the wake of the Iran battle.
The most important single sale was of lower-tier air missile defence sensor radars to Kuwait for $8 billion, adopted by the sale of a long-range discrimination radar and associated tools for $4.5 billion to the UAE.
That is additionally not the primary such occasion. Within the first week of March, the U.S. authorised an “emergency” sale of 12,000 bomb casings price $151.8 million to Israel.
Additional, the Washington Put up reported final week that the Pentagon has raised a request of greater than $200 billion to fund the battle in Iran– an quantity that will surpass the prices of the administration’s huge airstrike marketing campaign until date.
These offers apart, the battle itself has been an costly affair. In line with an evaluation by the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research, Operation Epic Fury is estimated to have value $16.5 billion by its twelfth day.
The estimate relies on assumptions in regards to the U.S.-allies cut up in air defence. It additionally assumes that greater than 90% of munitions used after Day 5 had been low-cost weapons.
Even with these assumptions, knowledge present that the U.S. has used a big share of its earlier procurements.
As proven within the chart above, the estimated variety of munitions expended in simply six days exceeds the variety of orders positioned by the Division of Defence in FY26 in a number of circumstances. These orders themselves would possibly take greater than a yr to be delivered.
For example, in lower than every week, the U.S. has expended 158 of its Terminal Excessive Altitude Space Protection (THAAD) interceptors. That is nearly 25% of all its earlier procurements until FY24. It’s also six instances its order for THAAD interceptors positioned in FY26.
Equally, it’s estimated to have used 139 of its Patriot Superior Functionality 3 (PAC-3) Missile Phase Enhancement (MSE), a excessive velocity hit-to-kill, surface-to-air missile to intercept air respiratory threats, ballistic and cruise missiles. That is nearly 7% of its earlier PAC-3 procurements.
Estimates present that nearly 15% of its earlier procurements of Joint Air-to-Floor Standoff Missile (JASSM)– an extended vary, typical air-to-surface cruise missile– have been expended in simply six days of its battle with Iran.
Replenishing these stockpiles will once more value the U.S. tens of millions. For example, the U.S. would require round $2 billion to exchange the THAAD interceptors used within the first six days. Equally, it’s going to want $3 billion and near $1 billion to exchange the SM-3 interceptors and Tomahawk missiles respectively.
Provide chain issue
The U.S.’s potential to afford the battle additionally is dependent upon mineral provide chains. Sure minerals corresponding to tungsten, gallium, germanium and antimony that are essential in varied army purposes are underneath constrained provide.
As proven within the chart beneath, the U.S.’s Internet Import Reliance (NIR) exceeds 90% for antimony and gallium. For germanium and tungsten, its NIR is bigger than 50%.
Antimony is crucial mineral used within the manufacturing of nuclear weapons, infrared sensors and explosive formulations. Enforcement businesses depend on germanium for surveillance and goal acquisition as it’s utilized in infrared imaging units. Its different makes use of embrace fibre-optic cables and optical units.
Gallium is used within the sensors in house and defence methods. Tungsten is used for quite a lot of army purposes, corresponding to alloy bullets, shrapnel heads, steadiness pinballs in missiles and plane, artillery shells and armoured tanks.
Virtually 20% of the U.S.’s web imports of those minerals straight comes from China. Beijing additionally controls nearly 30% of worldwide exports of Antimony and Gallium. It additionally surpasses a number of different nations when it comes to manufacturing and refining capability of those minerals
Earlier this month, S&P International reported that the Pentagon’s potential to replenish weapons stockpiles may come underneath stress from shortages in some crucial mineral markets in addition to from China’s leverage over mineral provide chains.
Knowledge for the charts had been sourced from the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research, U.S. Division of Defence, United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Jewish Institute for Nationwide Safety of America(JINSA
Revealed – March 25, 2026 07:30 am IST