As Nepal goes to polls on March 5, many wonder if this vote may turn into a re-run of 2008.
The distinction is that 18 years in the past, the Maoists, who had come overground simply two years earlier after ending the decade-long insurgency, swept the elections. This time, it could possibly be the Rastriya Swatantra Get together (RSP), using on a powerful anti-incumbency sentiment.
The place is Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda contesting from? He has chosen a constituency in Rukum — a Maoist stronghold through the insurgency.
Mr. Dahal, 71, a three-time Prime Minister, is going through a troublesome contest now. Till July 2024, he had managed to change sides — between the CPN-UML and the Nepali Congress — to stay Prime Minister, regardless of his occasion ending third within the 2022 elections.
UML’s Ok.P. Sharma Oli is contesting from Jhapa-5, the place he has misplaced solely one of many seven elections for the reason that restoration of democracy in Nepal in 1990. Mr. Oli suffered a defeat in 2008 when the Maoist wave was unprecedented.
Oli faces powerful contest
This time, nevertheless, Mr. Oli, 74, is prone to face an uphill problem resulting from a visual groundswell for the RSP, which has fielded Balendra Shah in Jhapa-5. Mr. Shah, 35, who resigned as Kathmandu’s mayor to make a foray into parliamentary politics, stays a massively common determine.
Devendra Bhattarai, a Kathmandu-based journalist who hails from Jhapa, says that this time it isn’t in regards to the candidate — it’s in regards to the wave.
“Mr. Oli’s obduracy, his refusal to confess errors, and his incapacity to persuade voters in regards to the improvement tasks he initiated within the area are prone to hurt him,” mentioned Mr. Bhattarai from Jhapa, who has visited most districts within the east.
Mr. Oli gained the final election with one of many highest margins within the nation.
‘Charismatic’ Balendra Shah
“Balendra Shah’s craze this time is akin to that of Prachanda in 2008,” Mr. Bhattarai mentioned. “Prachanda was a mysterious character then, as he had been underground through the struggle; Mr. Shah evokes an identical charismatic enchantment amongst voters.”
Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress, the third essential actor in Nepal’s latest revolving-door politics, is out of the race. In an upheaval throughout the Nepali Congress, additionally triggered by the Gen Z protests, Mr. Deuba was not solely ousted as occasion president but in addition denied a ticket.
A five-time Prime Minister, Mr. Deuba, 79, has been one of many defining figures of post-1990 politics. The Congress’ newly elected president, Gagan Thapa, 49, is contesting from Sarlahi-4, the place he faces a former Congress chief who’s now working on the RSP ticket.
The younger maintain the important thing
Greater than 3,000 candidates from over 60 events are contesting Nepal’s 275-member Home of Representatives. Because the elections have been triggered by final yr’s Gen Z protests — by which 77 folks misplaced their lives, together with 19 killed in police firing on the primary day, September 8 — the youth vote is prone to play a decisive position.
Practically a million new voters, largely younger folks, have been added to the rolls, taking the whole voters to about 19 million out of Nepal’s 30 million inhabitants.
Securing a majority by a single occasion seems extremely unlikely below Nepal’s blended electoral system. If the RSP emerges victorious, Mr. Shah may turn into the following Prime Minister. His victory would robotically push Mr. Oli out of the management race.
Alternatively, if coalition arithmetic shifts, Mr. Thapa of the Congress may emerge as the brand new chief. Whether or not this is able to considerably alter Nepal’s governance system — lengthy hamstrung by structural constraints and corruption — stays unsure. However the rise of both Mr. Shah or Mr. Thapa would undoubtedly mark a generational shift, transferring energy from the outdated guard to a brand new management cohort.
Submit-poll overseas coverage
Developments in Nepal are intently watched by its two fast neighbours — India and China — in addition to by america, Kathmandu’s long-standing improvement associate.
From a overseas coverage perspective, the UML below Mr. Oli has usually been perceived as leaning in direction of Beijing, whereas the Nepali Congress has historically maintained nearer political and institutional ties with New Delhi and Washington.
Nepal’s financial dependence on India stays substantial, with greater than two-thirds of its commerce carried out by the southern neighbour and significant transit routes working throughout the open border. No authorities in Kathmandu can afford a chronic rupture with New Delhi.
China has currently steadily expanded its sphere of affect by infrastructure financing and connectivity tasks below the Belt and Street Initiative. Beijing’s engagement might provide Kathmandu strategic leverage, but it surely may additionally introduce new monetary and diplomatic matrices that any incoming management should deal with prudently.
Faces change, realities endure
Washington continues to play a quieter however vital position. The Millennium Problem Company compact — a $500 million grant centered on electrical energy transmission and highway enchancment — uncovered deep political fault strains inside Nepal regardless of its developmental character.
Personalities have, at instances, deepened these exterior equations. Mr. Oli’s tenure was marked by heightened tensions with New Delhi, significantly after territorial disputes. Mr. Shah’s combative nationalist messaging throughout his mayoral time period — together with symbolic gestures resembling displaying a “Larger Nepal” map — elicited concern past Nepal’s borders. Mr. Thapa, whereas seen as institutionally aligned with Congress’ conventional companions, has but to function on the govt stage in overseas affairs.
No matter who leads the following authorities, Nepal’s room for manoeuvre stays slender — a reminder that whereas faces might change, geography and financial realities endure.
Revealed – March 03, 2026 10:03 pm IST