Iran walks a tightrope between diplomacy and deterrence

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The Iranians “not but prepared to truly acknowledge and work by way of the President’s calls for”, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated in an interview final week. On Sunday (February 22, 2026), Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s particular envoy for West Asia and his chief negotiator with Iran, stated the President was “curious” on why Iran had not capitulated underneath American stress. Mr. Trump is questioning “why, underneath this stress, with the quantity of sea energy and naval energy over there, why haven’t they arrive to us and stated, ‘we profess we don’t desire a weapon, so right here’s what we’re ready to do?’” stated Mr. Witkoff.

These remarks underscore rising frustration inside the Trump administration over its lack of ability to extract vital concessions from Tehran, regardless of substantial U.S. navy build-up close to Iran’s shores, together with the deployment of two plane service strike teams.

The U.S. and Iran have held two rounds of talks since tensions escalated in January, however no breakthrough has been achieved. Oman, which is mediating oblique negotiations between the 2 sides, has confirmed {that a} third spherical will happen in Geneva on February 26.

Additionally Learn | Witkoff reiterates U.S. purple strains; Pezeshkian indicators optimism

Combined indicators

Mr. Trump has repeatedly warned that he might resort to power if Iran fails to succeed in a deal. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi have stated Iran is for a “honest and equitable” settlement on its nuclear programme, however have rejected Washington’s coercive ways. The U.S. has despatched blended indicators about its aims. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated earlier this month that the U.S. wished discussions to cowl not simply Iran’s nuclear programme, but additionally its missile programme, its help for non-state actors in West Asia and its “remedy” of its personal folks. In response to Mr. Witkoff, the President has given him and Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law who can also be a part of the negotiating workforce, a transparent course that Iran ought to cease enrichment and conform to switch its stockpile of extremely enriched uranium overseas.

The Iranians have up to now, no less than publicly, resisted each units of calls for. They are saying they’re prepared to speak concerning the nuclear programme, however solely concerning the nuclear programme. Even on the nuclear programme, Iran says it might not surrender its “proper” to peaceable enrichment, and high officers, together with Ali Larijani, have resisted requires transferring its enriched uranium stockpile.

Additionally Learn | U.S. envoy says Trump questioning why Iran has not ‘capitulated’

Last deterrent

“Iran won’t be able to abandon its nuclear programme,” stated a safety analyst primarily based in Tehran, who didn’t wish to be named. “Even when Iran reaches a take care of the U.S. over its nuclear programme, Israel would nonetheless name it a risk. If Iran agrees to give up its ballistic missiles at the moment to avert warfare with the U.S., Israel will bomb Iran anyway a number of months down the road. So the query Iranians ask themselves is why ought to they offer up their final deterrent?” he stated.

In 2015, Iran agreed to position limits on its nuclear programme and open its services for inspection as a part of the Joint Complete Plan of Motion (JCPOA). Iran remained in compliance with the settlement till Donald Trump, in his first time period as President, unilaterally withdrew the U.S. out of it in Might 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. In 2020, the U.S. assassinated Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Pressure and one of the crucial outstanding navy figures within the Islamic Republic. In 2025, Iran was technically in talks with the U.S. over its nuclear programme when Israel bombed the nation on June 13. A number of days later, the U.S. joined Israel’s warfare and struck Iran’s nuclear services. Mr. Trump then claimed that the U.S. assaults had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme.

“These back-to-back setbacks to the diplomatic choice appears to have satisfied the chief that diplomacy doesn’t work,” a Tehran-based diplomat informed The Hindu, referring to Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “ There may be some stress inside the system, although the state is holding agency, for now. Reformists (led by President Pezeshkian and Mr. Aragchi) nonetheless believes a deal could possibly be attainable if it averts warfare and the U.S. agrees to elevate no less than some sanctions. The Iranians may be open to creating concessions on enrichment and enriched uranium. Nevertheless it additionally relies on what the White Home has to supply. The hardliners are watching when the talks are unfolding.”

Additionally Learn | President Donald Trump denies high U.S. officer warned of Iran strike dangers

Iran’s leverage

A warfare, by most accounts, can be disastrous for Iran, which is already grappling with inside pressure amid a deepening financial disaster. The U.S. wields overwhelming firepower, with dozens of fighter jets and warships deployed to the area. But, Iran has its personal leverage. It possesses 1000’s of ballistic missiles able to hanging American bases and belongings throughout the area, in addition to Israel. Iran might additionally disrupt or block cargo visitors by way of the Strait of Hormuz, a important worldwide maritime chokepoint.

In his second time period, Mr. Trump has attacked a number of nations, however he was additionally proven warning about getting entangled in a long-drawn conflicts. There isn’t a assure he might swiftly conclude a warfare with Iran, significantly as Tehran has repeatedly vowed to retaliate forcefully towards any assault. Nor can Washington maintain en elevated troop presence in West Asia indefinitely, significantly because the U.S. is making ready to carry midterm elections later this 12 months.

“Iran desires to keep away from warfare, however not at any value,” stated the Tehran-based safety analyst. “If the U.S. is pursuing gunboat diplomacy by way of a navy build-up together with talks, Iran is responding in sort —speaking whereas making ready for warfare.”

Revealed – February 24, 2026 06:20 pm IST

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