The View From India publication: Battle clouds hovering round Iran regardless of U.S. talks

(This text is a part of the View From India publication curated by The Hindu’s overseas affairs specialists. To get the publication in your inbox each Monday, subscribe right here.)

In early January, after protests broke out in Iran, President Donald Trump mentioned the U.S. was “locked and loaded” to reply if Iran killed protesters. On January 8 and 9, Iran cracked down on the unrest. Iranian authorities say “rioters and home terrorists” used pressure towards each peaceable protesters and safety personnel and that at the very least 3,000 folks had been killed within the ensuing violence. In line with Iran-focused organisations within the West, at the very least 6,000 folks had been killed, principally protesters. After the crackdown, Mr. Trump mentioned “assistance is on the best way” and urged the protesters to take over establishments. However as protests died down in Iran, Mr. Trump opened a diplomatic channel with Tehran whereas bolstering America’s army presence within the area.

For an in depth account of what occurred in Iran, see our story, The revolution is not going to be televised.

Iranian International Minister Abbas Araghchi met Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s particular envoy, in Oman on February 6, resuming nuclear diplomacy. Mr. Araghchi maybe has one of the troublesome diplomatic jobs on this planet right this moment. He has to barter with the U.S. whereas his nation, internally tense and economically struggling, can also be dealing with the specter of exterior aggression. Learn this profile of Mr. Araghchi, the diplomat on a tightrope, to get a way of the problem he’s dealing with.

Whereas there was no breakthrough within the Muscat talks, the Iranians mentioned each side would proceed discussions. Does that imply that struggle clouds have lifted from West Asia’s skies? It doesn’t. The state of affairs, the truth is, stays very tense. I’ll clarify why:

The dispute round Iran’s nuclear programme is a really advanced one. In 2015, Iran, the U.S. and different world powers signed the Joint Complete Plan of Motion (JCPOA), as a part of which Tehran promised to scuttle its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of worldwide sanctions. The Israeli authorities and sections of America’s political class weren’t proud of the deal which was negotiated and signed by the Obama administration. Mr. Trump, throughout his first time period as President, pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA unilaterally, virtually sabotaging the settlement. Iran then began enriching uranium past the permissible limits set by the JCPOA.

After Joe Biden assumed Presidency in 2021, there have been makes an attempt to revive the JCPOA, however weren’t fruitful. Mr. Trump, who returned to the White Home in January 2025, resumed talks with Iran, which by that point had elected a average President—Masoud Pezeshkian. Mr. Araghchi and Mr. Witkoff had 5 rounds of talks. However on June 13, two days forward of the scheduled sixth spherical, Israel began bombing Iran. The U.S. joined the struggle and attacked Iran’s key nuclear services — an assault which Mr. Trump hailed as an excellent success. He claimed that the U.S. had “completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear services.

Mr. Trump now calls for Iran make a deal over its nuclear programme. Although talks have resumed, outdated tensions persist. Even earlier than the primary spherical of talks in Muscat, each side had given differing views concerning the very format of the discussions. Iran mentioned the talks would focus solely on its nuclear programme, whereas Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, mentioned three extra factors ought to be included on the agenda — Iran’s ballistic missile programme, its assist for militia teams and its therapy of its folks. Iran says, at the very least publicly, that it could not negotiate matters apart from the nuclear programme.

Even when the agenda is proscribed to Iran’s nuclear programme, there’s nonetheless no consensus between the 2 sides. The U.S. desires Iran to cease enriching uranium utterly. It additionally calls for Iran ship its stockpile of extremely enriched uranium in a foreign country. However Iran says no to each calls for. After the Muscat talks, President Pezeshkian mentioned Iran would retain its rights below the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty — signalling that Tehran wouldn’t abandon its enrichment capabilities. When Russia proposed that it could assist in storing and processing Iran’s extremely enriched uranium, Tehran instantly dominated out any deal that requires it to switch enriched uranium in a foreign country.

Iran says it doesn’t search to construct a nuclear bomb; it is able to focus on the nuclear programme; and it’s open to succeed in a deal that doesn’t require it to cease enrichment. That is successfully JCPOA, which Mr. Trump tore aside in 2018. This implies, the U.S. and Iran stay far aside regardless of the resumption of talks in Muscat. This leaves us with one vital query: What’s going to Donald Trump do if talks collapsed this time? He has already deployed dozens of fighter jets, warships, destroyers and an plane service strike group to West Asia, whereas the Pentagon is at the moment bolstering its missile defences within the area, together with the deployment of THAAD.

Bangladesh elections

On February 12, Bangladesh will maintain its first nationwide election for the reason that fall of Sheikh Hasina. Opinion polls counsel the Bangladesh Nationalist Get together (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, is a frontrunner, whereas the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is predicted to do good. The Awami League, Ms. Hasina’s occasion, is just not contesting the election as its political actions have been banned by the interim authorities of Muhammad Yunus. The elections are a possibility for Bangladesh to transition right into a legit, elected authorities, with a transparent mandate to stabilise the nation. However pre-election violence has already marred expectations. The Hindu has been masking the developments in Bangladesh from the bottom for years. Within the run-up to the polls, Rabiul Alam has despatched a number of dispatches from Dhaka.

Pre-election violence shadows Bangladesh’s polls as 127 million put together to vote

For minorities, Bangladesh’s election is a litmus take a look at of safety

Awami League supporters adrift as Bangladesh heads for polls with out ruling occasion

The election is essential for India in addition to New Delhi seeks to reboot ties with Dhaka as soon as an elected authorities is in place. India-Bangladesh relations have hit a low since Ms. Hasina was ousted from energy. India can also be cautious of the rise of Jamaat within the neighbouring nation. Stick with The Hindu for extra floor studies from Bangladesh. My colleague Kallol Bhattacherjee is masking the elections for you from Dhaka.

The Prime 5

1. India-U.S. commerce deal is a blow to India’s strategic autonomy

Commitments made in the direction of ‘reciprocal and balanced commerce’ with a a lot bigger and richer financial system work towards India’s financial pursuits; authorities’s genuflection on Russian oil imports can broaden commerce deficit, writes Prasenjit Bose.

2. Myanmar’s military-scripted polls, India’s strategic bind

India should handle its ties with the regime, balancing ideas with pragmatism, writ Harsh V. Pant and Sreeparna Banerjee.

3. Trump’s oil blockade pushes Cuba to the brink

With simply weeks of gas left, Havana faces its gravest power disaster for the reason that Nineteen Nineties as U.S. army motion in Venezuela and recent sanctions choke off important oil provides, leaving extraordinary Cubans to bear the price, writes Srinivasan Ramani.

4. Stephen Miller | The anti-immigration czar

The U.S. Homeland Safety Adviser has formed President Donald Trump’s most inflammatory immigration initiatives, writes Sruthi Darbhamulla.

5. Finish of New START and the start of a brand new period of nuclear rivalry

For the primary time since 1972, there aren’t any legally binding limits on the variety of strategic nuclear weapons the U.S. and Russia can deploy, writes Vasudevan Mukunth.

Printed – February 09, 2026 05:22 pm IST